Wednesday the Fed went 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, first since 2023. Thirty-day cash pays about 3.96% and that's what most of the threads are about.
Wrong number, I think. The 10-year went through 5% the same day, highest since 2007. That's the rate that decides what a share is worth, and it didn't move because of the hike — it's been climbing for weeks.
Warsh said the long end was responding to economic strength, competition for capital from the capex boom, and geopolitics. Two of those three don't care what the Fed does next.
**What I think happens from here**
Futures price two more hikes this year. Fine. My guess is the long end stays sticky even if the Fed pauses, because the capex cycle is a genuine competitor for capital and that isn't a monetary problem. Every dollar going into datacentres is a dollar not buying a bond at 4.
So I'd drop the "growth vs value" framing. What's being repriced is duration and leverage, separately.
Duration: something at 60-odd times earnings, or on a multiple of sales while still losing money, is a bet on cash arriving in years six through twenty. That's exactly what a 5% discount rate punishes. A boring profitable business earning now barely notices.
Leverage catches people out because the names look defensive. Charter's net debt is several times its market cap, American Airlines over 3x, a couple of the big utilities around 1.5–1.8x. Financed like a mortgage, and the mortgage is resetting.
Other side of it: cash now earns roughly 4% doing nothing. BioNTech holds about a third of its market cap in net cash. Coupang, EPAM and First Solar are all double digits. Boring, real, and nobody mentions it.
**How are you reading it from here?**
* Does the 10-year come back down once the hiking stops, or is 5% just the level now?
* If it's the level, does that change how you size anything, or is it noise you sit through?
Curious what people are actually doing, not what they think the Fed should do.