Micron Technology needs 20.2% annual cash-flow growth in my model. Too much?

The market is asking a lot from Micron Technology.

At $924.03, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 20.2% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF fell about 18.8% a year (FY2022-FY2025). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.

Two operating details behind the valuation:

\\- Q3 FY2026: Micron Technology's latest-quarter revenue grew 346% year over year, compared with 196% year-over-year growth in the previous reported quarter.

\\- Micron Technology's reported FCF margin is 29.0%, up from 10.1% in the oldest comparable period.

Even my bull case is only $594, below today's $924.03 price. That is a demanding hurdle. Either the company keeps outperforming for years, or the stock has little room for disappointment.

Model assumptions: 11.5% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.

What could break the case: Semiconductors are cyclical.

Is the market right to expect more, or is the stock priced for too much?

The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: \[https://youtu.be/Y1Bx9S\\\_V5ck\](https://youtu.be/Y1Bx9S\_V5ck)

Snapshot: 2026-09-15. Disclosure: I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.