HOG has a lot going on right now, and it splits cleanly into what you can count and what you can't.
**I**n 2025 they sold the $5B+ HDFS loan book to KKR/PIMCO at a premium to par, with the buyers taking an equity slice at \~1.75× book.
The proceeds didn't sit around: total debt has gone from $7.0B (2023) to **$2.2B** as of June 30, leaving net debt of roughly **$350M versus \~$5.6B two years ago**. Cash on hand is $1.9B, about 60% of the market cap, the share count is down \~20% in two years from buybacks at or below book, and there's a \~2.8% dividend.
Whatever you think of motorcycles, the balance-sheet's risk has mostly been amputated.
Median buyer was \~52 in 2024, recent reports as high as 57. The average motorcycle rider in 1985 was 27. **Among riders under 30 today, Harley's share is \~8%,** Honda \~42%, Yamaha \~23%. Revenue is down \~23% from the 2023 peak, and Q2 gross margin compressed to \~32% from \~35% a year ago as tariffs land. That's the entire bear case, and it's why the stock trades right around book.
They have a whole guy on this now, Artie Starrs, the newish CEO (ex-Topgolf CEO, Pizza Hut's global CEO before that), whose stated mandate is cheaper bikes for the next generation; he told Reuters the sizing and pricing of new models are aimed squarely at first-time riders. Backed by the "Back to the Bricks" plan from May, the X350 (light, \~$4.5–6K equivalent overseas vs today's $25K+ cruisers) finally reaching the US, and a rumoured **entry-level "Sprint" model** semi-confirmed by a June 2026 dealer letter.
The strongest counter-case is young riders skipping gas bikes entirely for electric.
Which brings in **LiveWire a company Harley itself owns \~90% of.** LiveWire is still losing money, but if the future is electric two-wheelers, Harley literally holds the disruptor's equity. E-scooters/e-bikes eating the urban entry segment remain the uninsured risk.
**On Aug 10, Starrs bought 10,000 shares at $25.89 for a total of $259K, open market**, the Form 4's 10b5-1 box unchecked (discretionary, not a scheduled plan), taking his direct stake from **15,000 to 25,000 shares.** Filing: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000173210526000006/0001732105-26-000006-index.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000173210526000006/0001732105-26-000006-index.htm)
So: roughly at book, nearly no net debt, shrinking core, aging buyer, a credible-resume CEO buying his own turnaround. Whether a cheap Harley creates future Harley buyers or dilutes the brand that supports the margins is basically the entire debate on this stock.
Information, not advice. I build tooling in this space. No position in HOG.