Currently the average price to earnings ratio in the S&P 500 is 26. This compares to a historical average of 21 and a historic median of 16.
It feels like the entire market currently is a house of cards. We’re seeing massive levels of spending from the mag seven which is really helping keep the economy afloat. We’re witnessing record levels of speculation, especially with the rise of zero day to expiry options. In the background we’re witnessing. another war in the Middle East with oil touching $100 a barrel. The US national debt has hit $40 trillion and there’s increasing fear that one day the US may not be able to fulfil its debt obligations.
I would say about 90% of my portfolio is invested in America. I’m increasingly worried that my investments are stuck in the game a musical chairs. Maybe I’ll make some great profits. But I don’t wanna find out what happens when the music stops
For a long time the US stock market has gained around 10% on average annually. However, I suspect at some point investors aren’t going to be OK with investing at the current valuations. I suspect we’ll have several years where earnings grow, and the economy grows, but the price of stock stays stable or even drops until we revert to the mean of the average price to earnings of the market or even towards the historic median.
I also suspect we will see a return to traditional value investing. It feels like for many years the strategy has underperformed in this era of inflated evaluations and speculation. With a market rooted in value, I suspect, traditional value investing will outperform.