For those that are interested in PSKY - WBD merger arbitrage, absent a legal settlement, I expect Paramount to win at the trial on lack of evidence of a probable antitrust injury.
Most of the coverage on this merger has been one-sided showing its negative impact. I published this op-ed to show that the antitrust case against Paramount-Warner is weak based on industry data and that the theaters are not at the mercy of studios’ pricing; they have an equal position at the negotiating table.
Among many points that I mention, the states have misapplied antitrust tools like HHI, which is a revenue concentration measure, not a measure of a studio’s durable market power. It is DOJ's construct, not that of any federal court. The theaters control half of all screens in the U.S and they’d rather pack 365 days with the most reliable titles than many mid-tier titles which don’t fill seats. The industry trend has been to reduce the annual film slate, which is not a display of extreme market power but rather a portfolio decision to allocate more dollars to IP that is going to perform well. The total amount of capital spending by studios has not greatly changed over the years.
Proof of OP: [gurkiratspeca](http://x.com/gurkiratspeca)
