I have been quite interested in the robotics theme (for obvious reasons), but for almost every company I look at in the space, I find that they are pre operations, negative operations (with little transparency on when operations will become positive), or they are absurdly expensive.
This is true for pure play robotics companies, and many of the components makers.
This is why, when I looked back at Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and saw that the stock was off its highs by about 40%, I jumped back into my model to see if anything has materially changed for the investment thesis.
tldr; the surgical robotics industry is becoming more competitive, but Intuitive Surgical is likely to retain a majority market share. and I believe that now is an opportune time to finally be able to purchase this company that has historically always traded at lofty valuations.
A rising tide lifts all boats.
My thoughts and assumptions can be found on my blog post here:
[Intuitive Surgical - Value in Robotics — EquityForge](https://equityforge.ca/post_view.php?id=11)
Thoughts?
|Line Item|FY2026|FY2027|FY2028|FY2029|FY2030|FY2031|FY2032|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Revenue|$11,776|$13,719|$15,914|$18,380|$21,045|$24,034|$27,399|
|Revenue Growth %|17%|16.50%|16%|15.50%|14.50%|14.20%|14%|
|Diluted Shares (M)|359.1|357.3|356.9|356.9|357.3|358|359.8|
|Operating Cash Flow|$3,651|$4,321|$5,140|$6,010|$6,945|$7,979|$9,179|
|OCF Margin %|31%|31.50%|32.30%|32.70%|33%|33.20%|33.50%|
|CapEx|$657|$799|$966|$1,124|$1,285|$1,436|$1,606|
|Free Cash Flow|$2,994|$3,522|$4,174|$4,886|$5,660|$6,543|$7,573|
|Equity Value|$157,835|$169,273|$182,705|$196,541|$210,689|$223,406|$238,601|
|Intrinsic Value / Share (USD)|$440|$474|$512|$551|$590|$624|$663|