Don’t underestimate the impact of Dario saying “we must slow development of AI due to safety concerns”. Should impact QQQ bigly

People shouldn’t discount the massive implications of what Altman, Amodei, and Musk said in the past two days. The huge amount of debt these have that needs to be serviced cannot afford a slowdown in development “for safety” of any other reason. The debt payment schedules won’t allow it. And they certainly won’t be able to refi anything at better rates in a year or so if any maturing debt needs to be refi-ed. Dario proposed the following, taken from a cnbc.com article:

**“Anthropic has “unilaterally” committed to the first step of the plan, Amodei said, which grants third-party evaluators employee-level access to the company to verify safety practices and report incidents. The second step encourages leading AI companies within democratic countries to coordinate and establish common safety standards, and the third calls for coordination between democratic governments and authoritarian governments.” CNBC.com**

The safety concerns are real, and I’m sure there are dozens of breaches we haven’t been told about. However, the fact that Altman jumped on this so quickly and said that OpenAI is delaying their IPO because of “safety” is absurd. Many in the industry suspected he was going to have to do this anyway, and this ‘safety concern’ is a terrible excuse for it. He knows OpenAI is well behind where they need to be at this point for an IPO.

Of course, this could all be lip service from Anthropic and the other 2. However, one consideration in why the big 3 (OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic) may be saying this is that they’re trying to freeze out the open source models by trying to get the government to put official clamps down on AI that will make it impossible for the little guys to compete with the big 3 due to all the red tape created by the part of Dario’s proposal dealing with Democratic countries coordinating safety standards amongst themselves. That’s too hard for little guys to do. And, if the government says that they have to in the end, it really will be the end for a lot of competition for the big 3.

The third point, which deals with “democratic and authoritarian governments working together” is silly. First off, are we going to have a list on which governments are democratic and which are authoritarian? I’m sure we’ll get some funny opinions on that. Second, “working together” is too broad of a term to mean anything.

There is no doubt this is going to cause a huge tech stock market shakeout tonight when the futures open that will likely carry into trading in the early part of this week. Buckle up, it’s going to be a wild ride. We should easily test the very recent QQQ lows from this. I think the QQQ 200dma of 660 should also be in danger.