Thor Medical (TRMED.OL) looks more like a materials supplier than a typical biotech.
They extract Th-228, Ra-224 and Pb-212 from natural thorium in Norway. No reactor. AlphaOne at Herøya is finished and in commercial production. First deliveries are done.
The process is self-scaling: same plant, more output over time as reusable Th-232 feedstock builds.
Guidance is about 21,000 patient-dose equivalents after 3 years, 35,000 after 5, 60,000 after 10. They have talked about roughly NOK 16,000 per dose, so around NOK 330–350m revenue potential at the 21k run-rate. Management has pointed to positive EBITDA as volumes ramp, targeted around 2027.
They just raised NOK 300m at NOK 4.80 to fund the next step: a US presence (they call the long-term map AlphaGlobal). The share is sitting near that price. Dilution plus a disclosed short (Two Sigma, just over 1%) pulled the stock down. A subsequent offering for existing holders is still hanging.
They do not run phase 3 trials. Customers do. The backlog has been cited around NOK 850m. Named names include AdvanCell, Oncoinvent, RadioMedix, Telix, NucliThera, Eckert & Ziegler and Minerva, plus an undisclosed global TAT player. AdvanCell’s Pb-212 prostate program (TheraPb) is in phase 2. Eli Lilly and Sanofi are on AdvanCell’s cap table, not Thor’s. Updated phase 1b data is due at ESMO in October. Perspective is running Pb-212 in NETs and melanoma. Responses have deepened with longer follow-up.
Ra-224 is a separate queue. Alpha Tau’s Alpha DaRT (device, Breakthrough) filed the first FDA PMA module in January 2026. Pivotal cSCC trial is enrolled. Top-line late 2026 or early 2027. Not approved yet. Oncoinvent’s Radspherin (ovarian peritoneal mets) has Fast Track. Phase 2 interim expected late 2026. Thor supplies isotope into that chain. Approval of a drug or device still does not equal Thor winning every kilo.
Why it can be cheap: plant risk is largely behind, cash is in, US step is funded, you are not underwriting one binary readout.
Three houses cover it, and they do not agree.
Arctic: Buy, NOK 8.7 (was 5.0). They price self-scaling and extra isotope demand from losses in the radiopharma chain.
ABG: about NOK 7 base, NOK 20 in a bull case.
Carnegie: Sell, NOK 4.20. That note still reads like a construction story. It barely prices AlphaGlobal, treats approved drugs as the only demand that counts, and does not give much credit to the tax-loss carryforward from the old Nordic Nanovector shell. That loss is in the region of NOK 677m and can shelter years of profit. At 22% corporate tax that is real cash, not a footnote. Carnegie target is not far from the after-tax value of that shield alone if you take it at face value.
Links: https://youtu.be/Xkw-xlNAshQ
https://www.research-tree.com/research/arctic-securities/arctic-thor-medical-self-scaling-production-and-hidden-isotope-demand-support-material-upside/61\_91ea263e-1b3f-4dc6-8eb2-f911d32a360a
https://www.isotopes.gov/node/1530
https://live.euronext.com/en/products/equities/company-news/2026-09-10-thor-medical-asa-share-capital-increase-relation-private
