MRAM: shorts built at $13-16 and never covered. 17.8% of float, 1.8M shares of call notional overhead, price just broke $18.30.
**TL;DR: 3.5M shares short on a 19.6M float, built into the July decline, still not covered. Inverse H&S just completed. Measured move $21-22. And Ya, I put this together with AI. Carefully, after doing the dd.**
**The short position**
|Settlement|Shares short|
|:-|:-|
|Jun 30|2.59M|
|Jul 15|**3.68M (+42%)**|
|Jul 31|**3.50M**|
They added 1.09M shares in two weeks while it fell from $16 to the mid-$13s. Then it bottomed at 12.87 - and they covered **177 thousand shares.** 4.8% of the position. Sat through the low, sat through earnings.
3.50M = **17.8% of the 19.63M float**, 14.4% of shares out. DTC 3.1 on 1.24M ADV. At $18 the whole position is offside.
**Next print settles today, publishes \~Aug 25.**
**The chart**
Jun 30 high 24.41 → Jul 29 low **12.87** (−47%). Six higher lows since: 12.87 / 14.00 / 15.05 / 15.77 / 16.57 / 17.04. Green days ran 2.3–2.6M, red days 0.9–1.0M - accumulation.
Inverse H&S, head at 12.87, neckline **17.10–17.40**. Broke Aug 12, backtested Aug 13 (held 16.57), and today it's through **18.30,** the Aug 4 high and the top of a two-week coil. Currently **$18.15, +7.8%**, high 18.34.
Measured move: 17.4 + 4.53 = **$21.90**.
**Gamma**
Parity across the 15/17.5/20 strikes prices spot at \~18.10, so these are live quotes.
* Aug 21: 1,118 OI u17.5 (now ITM) · 1,459 $20 · 2,427 $25 · 990 $30$ → 6,747 contracts ≈ 675K shares
* Sep 18: 1,065 $20 · 1,422 $25 · 1,231 $30 · 1,199 $35 · 2,235 $40 · and populated OI all the way to $65 → 11,239 contracts ≈ 1.12M shares
**Combined \~1.8M shares of notional delta above the money = 9.2% of float.** Sep 30C traded **1,103 today against 1,231 open,** someone nearly doubled that line in one session.
Opex is next Friday. The 20 strike is the pin fight.
**The new variable**
**MRAX:** 2x leveraged single-stock MRAM ETF - launched Aug 11. Three days old. Swap-based, so the counterparty hedges in the underlying, and the daily reset means it **buys into strength near the close.** Structural pro-cyclical flow into a 19.6M float. Cuts both ways on red days, but it didn't exist for any prior run in this name.
**Levels**
Overhead: **18.30** (breaking) → **19.10–19.60 gap + 50DMA 19.51** (the real test) → 21–22 → 24.41 → nothing until 51.50. Support: **17.40 neckline** (must hold) → 16.57 → 15.05 → 14.92 (200DMA) → **12.87 = invalidation.**
**What kills it**
Borrow is **0.4%** \- shorts have zero funding pressure and can sit indefinitely. This is a positioning squeeze, not a hard-to-borrow one. DTC \~3 is moderate. The 50DMA is declining and sits right on the gap. Short data is 14 days stale. And an equity offering expands the float and ends it instantly.
Not advice. Technicals only.
