Investment thesis for trading week 9/14 - 9/18
So far September was not too bad. We are facing buy back block outs, options expiry and rebalancing issues.
All of that is topped by an endless war in Iran and the prospect of higher yields across the board.
But....it's the earnings stupid plus major tops almost never happen any other time than (Nov-March).
I understand all the negativity is mainly driven by what I mentioned above.
However charts did not break down (yet) despite having the chance to. To the contrary. The longer it takes for the market to fold the higher the chance that it will become a bear trap.
Given the chart picture I increased the exposure again to SPY and QQQ (not for my daughter's portfolio).
It looks like we will get a rate hike next week but it will very likely be the last one. Regardless I believe that stocks have already priced in that one hike.
I would love to see higher yields because that would allow me to load up more on bonds.
Right now my bond allocation is only 20% across all portfolios (long and short term).
QQQ is a buy once we break above the green downtrend line.
In my opinion today's ETH action showed me that liquidity is enough to start a broadbased continued market rally.
Have a great weekend!