Everyone loves tech stocks right now. That’s exactly what worries me about the next 10 years.

Right now it feels like everyone is buying the same things: tech stocks, semiconductors, “AI stocks,” Nasdaq 100, QQQ.

And at the same time, the Nasdaq 100 is trading around 30x earnings, while the S&P 500 CAPE ratio is getting close to 40.

Both are historically expensive. You basically have to go back to the peak of the dot-com bubble to find clearly more extreme valuations.

That doesn’t mean tech stocks have to crash tomorrow. They could keep going up for quite a while.

But I think people are confusing a great technology with a great price.

AI can completely change the world. Semiconductor demand can keep growing. The largest tech companies can keep making more money.

None of that tells you what return you’ll earn if you buy them at today’s valuation.

The higher the starting price, the more future growth you’re already paying for.

My guess is that the biggest surprise of the next decade won’t be that AI failed.

It’ll be that AI succeeded, tech companies kept growing, and Nasdaq 100 investors still earned much less than they expected.

That’s what high starting valuations can do.

Anyone feels same?