$TESLA current valuation just don't make sense.
A stock is worth its relative rate of return on invested capital and the sustainability of its dividend distribution rate above the safest government bills. Stocks are promises of returns, the validity of their exchangeability must be superior to government issues.
$TESLA returns less than 5% on capital and has never paid a dividend, yet trades at 243x its Free Cash flow and 263x earnings.
Why even own this company when you can clip safe government coupons at near 4% and relax?
Legacy Western/Japanese OEMs Median P/E of 6x to 8x due to slow volume growth and heavy capital expenditure transitions.
Chinese EV Manufacturers P/Es of 18x to 25x+ (e.g., market leaders like BYD) reflecting high-growth pricing models and scale advantages. BYD even pays a small dividend.
Tesla trades 40x above the median OEM earnings and 10x its biggest competitor (BYD) that also happens to be the world’s leading EV manufacturer.
Toyota earned $27 billion in net profit vs $3.8 billion for Tesla. Yet the market value Toyota 30x less than Tesla on an earnings base even though Toyota has been the world’s leading automotive OEM for the past 30 years has consistently paid dividends !!!!
Here is a brutal deduction; even at 50x earnings, Tesla will still be expensive unless it can demonstratively return free cash to its shareholders!
Good luck on that bet!
No need for polemics, controversies, and I am even ignoring past scandals.
( Not investment advice. Not recommending shorting the stock. Wall Street is not your friend. Always contact a trustworthy investment advisor. )