For the next 10 years, more traditional value investing will outperform in my opinion

Interest rates are rising to levels we have not seen since 2008. We are in a market environment of mostly cost push as well as some demand pull inflation. I doubt we will see a major decrease in rates anytime soon, especially towards the levels of the past.

The cost of borrowing is something that I suspect is going to be a major damper on the easy growth that we have had for the last two decades. For the value investor, I suspect this will mean companies will actually become easier to analyze. There will be less weighting placed on future growth and more weighting placed on current justifiable valuation. This will be because the riskiness of future cash flows will be higher given both the higher weighted average cost of capital and the likely difficulty in acquiring financing for risky growth ventures.

I think, for the same reason, more traditional value investments are likely to outperform. Many growth ventures will not be able to generate growth exceeding their weighted average cost of capital. Even if they are, higher cost to borrow will make future cash flows more risky. On the other hand, high-quality conservative companies will be better positioned to thrive in this environment. They can defensively allocate capital. Less of their valuation is composed of risky and unknown future cash flows and thus they are less likely to lose significant proportions of their value when they are unable to achieve return greater than their cost of capital as compared to speculative companies, whose valuation primarily lives in the future.

What do you folks think?