Title: 19yo, considering TSMC at 10% of a long-term portfolio — thoughts?
I’m building a long-term portfolio and strongly considering TSMC for a 10% slot. Fundamentals seem genuinely strong to me, near-monopoly on advanced chip manufacturing, consistent revenue growth, and they’re the chokepoint underneath basically every major AI/semiconductor company. Several analysts predict they could outpace the S&P 500 over the next decade too. I’m deliberately skipping Nvidia for this slot since it’s already my largest indirect holding through other ETFs, TSMC gives similar thematic exposure one step back in the supply chain without doubling down on something I already own a lot of.
The obvious concern is China/Taiwan risk. I know it’s somewhat priced in already and that TSMC’s diversifying manufacturing (Arizona, Japan) to reduce it over time. Would genuinely like to hear from people who follow this closely, how seriously do you weigh that risk for a long-term hold, and does the valuation still justify the position size despite it? Bull and bear takes both welcome, not just “geopolitics is scary,” I’ve thought about that part already. Honestly every aspect of the business seems like the perfect stock to me apart from the geopolitical risk.