Is LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. still a good buy at this price close to $1000?

The 5 Most Alarming Signals:

China Dependence (69.1% indium) — an unpriced existential geopolitical risk

30% Supply Gap — Lumentum can't deliver, losing market share

Massive Dilution ($7.8B loss) — shareholders structurally diluted

Customer Concentration (41.6% top 2) — one customer can destroy 27% of revenue

Tier-1 Funds Exit — Millennium -50%, Point72 -80%, Fidelity -23%

What the Market Isn't Seeing:

Chinese Controls on InP are PERMANENT — no suspension, no expiration

Greensboro Fab is coming too late (mid-2028) — doesn't solve the current problem

Pricing Power is Artificial — disappears if competitors resolve their supply issues

Dilution is Structural — as long as the stock is high, Lumentum converts its debt

Pod Funds Exit — their quantum systems detect the overvaluation