Been looking into AEHR after this recent run and I’m curious what people here think.
The growth story looks real. Bookings hit $60.7M, effective backlog is around $100.6M, and FY27 revenue guidance jumped to $130M–$150M.
My issue is the valuation.
At my Aug. 20 starting price of $105.97, I had AEHR trading above 20x the midpoint of FY27 revenue guidance on a cash-adjusted basis.
At the same time, three customers still accounted for 51% of FY26 revenue, most orders can be cancelled or rescheduled, and only a small part of the backlog was backed by disclosed deposits.
So I’m not bearish on the business. I just think expectations may have moved faster than the company can prove them.
My call is AEHR underperforming SOXX by at least 20 percentage points over the next year.
If they start showing repeat orders across several customers and a believable path toward $300M+ in revenue, I’d reconsider it.
What could I be missing?