*Note: This is my assessment and opinion. I place high probability on this coming to pass, but there's always a chance that it does not.*
While Strategy management is running around like a headless chicken and changing strategies like one changes underwear, I believe $MSTR is lining up for another leg down.
Simply because Strategy's fortunes are tied to those of Bitcoin at the hip, and Bitcoin is showing signs of keeling over:
[Left: Flags on Bitcoin | Right: Liquidity \(GLI Indicator on tV\)](https://preview.redd.it/mrpftap2pmjh1.png?width=1575&format=png&auto=webp&s=6307b4585f8ddf257a269e4af574a30e09441053)
Both the technicals and liquidity suggest it's time for Bitcoin's next leg down. Perhaps the final leg down, before it starts bottoming. (Yes, these measures are reliable; you can see track record of this [here](https://x.com/NitherDither/status/2073565617399939150) on X.)
Here's a sensitivity table based on BTC price and mNav, given the current balance sheet:
[MSTR price sensitivity table \(my calculations\)](https://preview.redd.it/b0uiv9z0rmjh1.png?width=921&format=png&auto=webp&s=23ef3a3b4db3cf0a2aacf44859aaa918b8ecee48)
(The negative numbers are mathematical - at that point, MSTR starts being priced like an option.)
Based ON Bitcoin's expected trajectory, I expect MSTR to hit **$40ish** in the next **8-12 weeks**.
Ironically, the saving grace is the $4.65B in **USD** reserves. Without it, MSTR would be in the teens if Bitcoin fell more than half. You can see that effect here:
[Strategy balance sheet at current BTC price and BTC @ $12K \(my calculations\)](https://preview.redd.it/m7k0nuelrmjh1.png?width=747&format=png&auto=webp&s=3fa2d1470fe4a8d8fb2fe08fd30cd2d1a99332cd)
What invalidates this? Bitcoin finding a bottom sooner, and even starting to move up. Which will happen when Treasury yields fall, and there is a major liquidity pump. Hard to see that without a recession, and there are few signs of that.
So I feel pretty comfortable with this prognosis. At least directionally.
Positions: None yet; will initiate with MSTZ next week.