I think we see a new all time high in MSFT by the end of the year.
I dont think the market has priced in the OpenAI ipo into the MSFT stock price.
\-Microsoft holds a 27% ownership stake in OpenAI
\-Under their agreement, Microsoft maintains long-term access to OpenAI’s frontier AI models and exclusive cloud and API partnership terms
\-OpenAI's private valuation has reached roughly $852 billion
\-Microsoft stake is valued at approximately $230 billion. Amounting to over $215 billion in unrealized gains for shareholders.
\-Once public, OpenAI can raise capital directly from public shareholders through secondary offerings or debt issuance rather than leaning exclusively on Microsoft for continuous funding checks. This relieves potential capital pressure on Microsoft
\-Microsoft and OpenAI have a revenue-sharing agreement:OpenAI pays Microsoft a set percentage of its revenue, which continues through 2030, but it cannot exceed the $38 billion ceiling.
\-So not only will MSFT get a gain on the ownership stake they get a share of the revenue.
-On a side note Microsoft has a $5 billion investment in Anthropic, with initial capital deployed during Anthropic's Series G funding round. Microsoft and Anthropic have explored expanding the compute infrastructure to run on Microsoft’s in-house Maia 200 custom AI chips inside Azure data centers.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
Bottom line is all roads lead to MSFT, MSFT is about to become the most valuable company in the world, once again. They're going to have a problem of figuring out what to do will all the cash. Also all their lines of business are firing on all cylinders.