Is the bond market nearing a breaking point? (AI Debt vs. US Treasuries & The Return of the "Debasement Trade"

I just finished listening to the latest episode of the *Equitile Conversations* podcast ("Return of the Halo Trade" with Gerald Ashley and George Cooper), and they made some fascinating points about the current macro environment, specifically regarding the bond market and US debt.

Mainly the point about private AI debt actively competing with US Treasuries. Everyone talks about the national debt pushing $40T, but when you stack massive corporate borrowing for AI data centers and power grids on top of that, you get textbook crowding out. Long yields are already feeling that pressure.

A few other takeaways:

* **The Maradona Theory:** Interesting discussion around Kevin Warsh potentially ditching explicit forward guidance. The idea is that if the Fed stops spoon-feeding rate paths, market guessing actually tightens long rates for them while policy sits still.
* **The T-Bill Rollover Problem:** The Treasury relying so heavily on short-term paper creates massive rollover risk. Between that, gold moving, and a softer dollar, the debasement trade (hard assets over high-multiple tech) seems like it's quietly returning.
* **Tech vs. Value:** Steeper yield curves mean higher discount rates, which naturally hurts long-duration tech. But it makes cheap, cash-generative value names and small caps look a lot safer.

Is anyone actually tracking how much private AI debt issuance is going to strain the bond market over the next year or two? Or are people mostly ignoring the T-bill rollover risk right now?

*(Link:*[*Return of the Halo Trade*](https://www.equitileconversations.com/2459100/episodes/19706828-return-of-the-halo-trade)*)*