Hello everyone. I am writing because I could use some input on a valuation i recently ran in a video - and some insight on UNH ability to continue increasing prices.
I recently posted a YouTube video, where I explained UNH, and i went over all the drama the company has faced, their recovery, and the issues I see heading into 2026. Also, I explained how an Eli Lilly study they recently released could imply long term margin expansion for the company, through GLP-1 adoption. Video link is here: Is UnitedHealth In Real Trouble? UNH Stock Analysis
[https://youtu.be/-JTYROe6-T8](https://youtu.be/-JTYROe6-T8)
However, being European, I am a bit sceptical about the Medicare relaint parts of OPTUM, and their margin recovery, that relies on price increases. I wonder how durable the idea of “repricinf the book” is. How is the American perspective on this?
And most importanly: I ran a reverse-DCF, using the depressed FCF from 2025, a discount rate of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 0%. Looking back, I think that might have been a bit too harsh on a company that has been such a durable compounder, however, the issues I see going forward are big and I need a relatively high margin of safety to justify buying a company in this state.
My question about the DCF model i ran is basically: was I too harsh? Did I kill the company too early? And what I’m trying to get an understanding of: is there any holes in my curent logic?
Also - if you are into this company, where do I go from here? Where do I find evidence that disproves me
Would love some feedback for future valuations, and I think this is the best place to get that.
All the best,
Mattias
