Had some time to go through the H1 report properly.
At first glance you see revenue down 22% and EBITDA down 12%, so it looks like a clear step backwards from 2025. But I actually think the numbers are pretty decent considering what happened to metal prices.
They still made €47.2m EBITDA in the first six months on €298m revenue. Average antimony prices were roughly 50% lower than H1 last year and lead was also weaker. So revenue took a big hit from lower metal prices, while profitability held up much better.
Specialty Chemicals is probably the main thing to watch. ATO volumes were down 23%, which isn’t great. Customers obviously reacted to the crazy antimony prices last year by using less or switching where possible. But antimony has now gone the other way, from around $60k/t in mid-2025 to $23k at the end of June, and Campine says it was already around $18k when the report came out. At those prices ATO becomes much more competitive again, so it wouldn’t surprise me if some of that lost demand gradually comes back.
Even with all that, Specialty Chemicals still made €32.4m EBITDA versus €36.6m in the very strong first half of 2025. That seems pretty resilient to me.
The Ecobat part is also interesting. The acquired smelters apparently didn’t contribute to H1 earnings yet. Campine says the first synergies are starting to show elsewhere, but the more meaningful contribution from the acquired operations is expected from 2027 onwards. So I don’t think we’re seeing the full earnings power of the enlarged group yet.
The one thing I’m not completely sure what to make of is the €65m full-year EBITDA guidance.
They already did €47.2m in H1, which means the guidance implies only about €17.8m for the whole second half. That would be a huge drop from H1.
Maybe management really expects H2 to be that weak because of low lead prices and the lower-margin environment. Fair enough. But it also leaves quite a bit of room if ATO demand starts recovering or the French operations improve faster than expected. Campine themselves say lower antimony prices should gradually help demand, while Ecobat synergies should increase over time.
Another thing I liked was the cash flow. Operating cash flow was €39.3m versus minus €18.8m in H1 last year. Cash ended at €21.1m despite the dividend, investments and acquisition spending.
The balance sheet also still looks very comfortable. Bank debt is only €7.5m and they have more than €77m of undrawn committed facilities. So they still have plenty of room to invest or do another acquisition if the right opportunity comes along.
For me the main question isn’t really whether 2026 ends at €65m, €68m or €72m EBITDA.
I’m more interested in what a normal year looks like from 2027 onwards once Ecobat has been improved and ATO demand has adjusted to more normal antimony prices.
If €60-65m turns out to be something like the new normal rather than a peak, I think the valuation gets pretty interesting. And if Ecobat and future acquisitions can push that higher over time, even better.
Obviously 2025 was exceptional and I wouldn’t extrapolate those €89m of reported EBITDA. But I also wouldn’t look at the 2026 decline and conclude the story is over.
€47m EBITDA in six months with ATO volumes down 23%, much lower antimony prices, weak lead economics and basically no earnings yet from the acquired smelters looks quite solid to me.
Curious what others think about the €65m guidance. Too conservative, or is H2 really going to be that much weaker?