I will start by admitting that I thought it was a buy more than 6 months ago and got burned, however, I think it is a strong buy now.
The proof hinges on one big factor, they are buying back aggressively, with their last report showing they spent over $5 million in 6 weeks on buybacks. With that current aggressive buyback they have a pretty strong floor, that gets stronger as they remove more shares from the market.
The question is why are they buying back so aggressively now, and the the answer to that is interesting. The are buying back at around 30% NAV, which is a good deal any time, but right now gives them two paths forward that buybacks perfectly set them up for.
Because they have a huge stake in Arashi Vision (worth about twice XNET's market price) They have to divest from it to meet SEC regulations. They have until the beginning of June next year to do so.
The aggressive buyback sets insiders up to gain 66% voting control of XNET. Right now they control \~55% directly, and another 10-15% is favorable to them, but they are removing about 1% of the float a month. At this rate, they are practically assured to have the 66% they need to execute a statutory merger in the first quarter of next year. Doing so would bypass the need to liquidate their stake of Arashi Vision as they would then be delisted as a private company. This is likely their goal. If they do this, they would have to pay a 25%-40% premium for all outstanding publicly held shares, but the base of that premium would be the 30 day market price of the shares, and even with the premium they would buy the outstanding public float at a deep discount.
The other option is the share price climbs dramatically before they are ready to force privatization, in which case they don't. Instead they buy up as many of the outstanding shares that they can, before the price gets too high, then announce a "special dividend" when the public float has been heavily reduced, causing a massive spike and allowing them to sell some of their personal positions at an inflated price, giving them two pay days in the form of a large dividend, and a small liquidation.
Regardless, buying now is a great idea. Because the aggressive buybacks are building a strong floor under the current price, and some sort of action has to be taken by June of next year. If they privatize, they will announce it before then, once they are sure they have the voting power, and have bought as much of the float at a discount as possible, and everyone holding shares at that point gets a premium buyout of their position. If they don't, it is because the share price has climbed too much, and is likely to spike higher.