Gold has performed well in August, with futures rising over 14% off the lows back on August 3. The breakout on August 5 was the clearest trigger for longs, and [**I first entered the trade via GDX**](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/tcWfP8rE-Gold-is-breaking-out/), the gold miner ETF. I then [**added in a futures trade**](https://x.com/GatorResearch/status/2087299481700299004) (perpetuals) on August 11 at about 4432.
Confidence in the US dollar is weakening, shown by the dollar index in decline. People are in search of a store of value to hedge against this decline, along with persistent selloffs in bonds and high inflation.
The question now is whether or not it’s too late or how we can play it from here. A lot of people may feel like they missed the trade, and frankly, I’m one of them for two reasons: I was a day late and feel like I didn’t go in hard enough.
**I don’t think it’s too late**
These macro issues don't seem to have any realistic solution on the horizon right now and gold charts still look strong. A few other things working for it:
* Gold recovered the 200-day moving average (red line in chart), which means structural trend is reestablishing after trading below this marker since early June
* Gold and miners are showing relative strength against the index benchmark, now leading or improving against it for three straight weeks. GDX has seen strong inflows this month, including the largest single day inflow since March on August 12
* Weekly MACD, which was central to my GDX trade thesis, has confirmed by flipping positive
**The trade**
The overarching theme is long gold and I wouldn’t have a real problem adding into some of these names if I didn’t already have exposure. For instance GDX: I plan to hold for months depending on how things develop (economy, macro, and gold price performance).
For futures, I want to be a little more precise and see if I can get in on a pullback to 4600-4610. If price dips further, I’d like to add around 4565. A bullish reaction at either spot seems like a good trade this week. Otherwise, [I will update on Twitter](https://x.com/GatorResearch) if I see another entry.
https://preview.redd.it/3r7yipbso6lh1.png?width=1556&format=png&auto=webp&s=353e647cea05a5fea817a9fb530e317ffb6dc5b8