A good trade in a bad market is often a bad trade.
The chart below shows the ratio of high beta to low volatility (white line) with the 50-day moving average in yellow. When the rally in April kicked off, high beta names not only began to outperform low volatility ones, but this crossed over the 50-day moving average and a rally kicked off.
Almost all the trades I got into were profitable, I had several double or even come close to triple, it was an easy money regime. RKLB, BLZE, NAVN, IONQ were some of the bigger movers, besides chips, that I was in.
What we're seeing now though is perhaps an early warning of what's to come. Stocks inevitably pulled back after that rally in April and May. After doing so, they recovered the 50-day moving average and things looked good again. However on the retest, the ratio failed and a lower high is on the chart.
It's not so much that you can't trade or setups aren't appearing, far from it. But money is flowing into the AI trade right now like it was back then. Instead we're seeing money rotating into gold and crypto, which reflect dollar debasement and "store of value" (even though I don't think bitcoin is really a store of value). It's a different market regime.
Anyways thought this may be an interesting chart to share, and one which factors into my swing trading quite a bit.
https://preview.redd.it/3omk2j772elh1.png?width=1377&format=png&auto=webp&s=f268d61f798b815cd1a01fa390f848fa781356b5