Spent a while going through this one and wanted to sanity check my
read, because I might be weighting things wrong.
The facts as I understand them: Treasury doubled its long-dated
buyback size from $2bn to $4bn per operation, and the 30-year came
off 5.34% (a 19-year high) down to about 5.19%. The move started
right after.
What bugs me is the size of it. A 15bp move in the long end doesn't
obviously get you 25%. So I went and looked at liquidation data.
$1.23bn of short positions went in a single hour on Wednesday, and
another \~$4bn across Thursday and Friday. The long/short account
ratio is still sitting at 0.865, so there are more accounts leaning
short even now.
Which is why I've landed on this being a trigger plus a crowded
book, rather than the macro picture actually changing. One of the
MEXC analysts said something similar, that the market priced this
as a regime change when it wasn't really one.
There's a decent case against me though. Spot ETFs took in roughly
$650m over the week, and CryptoQuant's 30-day spot demand metric is
apparently about to cross positive for the first time since
February. If that holds up then this wasn't just forced buying and
my read is wrong.
Counterpoint to the counterpoint, I guess: funding is at its
highest since January and open interest is climbing again, so
leverage is getting rebuilt rather than sitting out. The 200-day is
around $69k and whether that flips to support seems like the actual
test here.
So, am I overweighting the squeeze? Genuinely curious if people
think the spot demand recovery is the bigger story and I'm just
anchored on the liquidation numbers because they're dramatic.
Put the whole thing in a table here if it's useful, though fair
warning it's my own site: [https://gstoc.com/post/907](https://gstoc.com/post/907)