There are a lot of discussions surrounding this topic. Personally I don't see it happening. I don't understand the value in merging these two. The main issue from Musk standpoint is the dilution. Here is the math.
Tesla: $1.35 trillion, Musk's stake is about 20.3% including vested options (roughly 15% in shares alone).
SpaceX: $1.86 trillion, Musk owns 48.4% of the economics but over 82% of the votes via super-voting Class B shares.
So at this moment relative to SpaceX alone, he'd be diluted from 48.4% down to \~36.5%. Relative to Tesla alone, he'd actually go up (20.3% → 36.5%).
Ways around it:
• Keep voting control separate from economics - keep power but lower total ownership, Tesla shareholders would give up control
• Skew the exchange ratio in Tesla's favor - poses significant legal risks, majority-of-the-minority shareholder vote would need to bless any above-market terms
• Buy more Tesla stock first
• Merge companies only when Tesla value is significantly less than SpaceX
Bottom line: "no dilution" is only achievable if he either games the exchange ratio (legally risky) or leans entirely on super-voting shares to preserve control rather than economic ownership. Merger always means he is paying $SPCX equity for $TSLA. But the more SpaceX is worth the less he is diluting himself.
What do you guys think? What am I missing?