Obviously nobody knows the future, so even the most rational and prudent answer could end up being wrong in the end due to irrational forces at work in the market and world. But one still has to do their best to use good judgment and move toward future goals.
I’m good on retirement for now, but I’ve been looking into some basic investing (S&P 500, US total market, bonds) to put my income to work in the medium term for possible large expenses in 5-10 years, like a home purchase.
But looking at the current news, we got:
\* oil prices causing instability and inflation
\* no quick and easy fix for Iran so this could last for years
\* AI bubble threatening to burst any moment
\* 30 year treasury shenanigans
\* possible rate hikes
\* indefinite tariffs
\* 2.5 years left of god-only-knows what kind of dumb shit this administration will do next
So how much of a risk is it to begin medium term investing now, and is that risk still a lot better than having my cash sitting around doing nothing for the next 5 to 10 years? At the very least I do have a CMA to hold most of my savings.