Someone said Warsh’s speech was “obvious” because he doesn’t do forward guidance. That take completely misses the point.

Alright regards, gather around.
Everyone is arguing about whether Warsh was hawkish or dovish on September.
That is the most NPC way to read this speech.
Warsh wasn’t handing out a September rate-call coupon.
He was laying out the Fed’s reaction function — the actual rulebook for when they move.

Here’s the smooth-brain translation:

Persistent: this shit isn’t going away
1.Price stability is not automatic. Inflation does not magically mean-revert.
2.Underlying trend inflation is what matters.
3.Progress over the past two years has been modest.
4.The data does not show that underlying inflation trends have meaningfully improved.

Temporary: maybe noise, maybe not
1.Idiosyncratic factors can distort the data.
2.The recent rise in commodity prices still bears watching.
3.This summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected.

When does the Fed actually move?
1.They need confidence that underlying inflation is moving toward the objective clearly and fast enough. Otherwise, there is still work to do.
2.They have already expressed a joint readiness to act if circumstances require it.
3.The key question is whether five-plus years of inflation have become embedded in expectations.
4.Rising commodity prices matter if they signal renewed upside inflation risk.

The point is not whether Warsh gave you a clean “September cut” or “no September cut” headline.
The point is that the Fed’s reaction function is the regime.
A rate call is the headline.
The reaction function is the game.
So no, the speech was not “obvious” just because Warsh avoids forward guidance.
The entire point was identifying what he considers temporary, what he considers persistent, and what would force the Fed to act.
What does this mean for September and beyond, you beautiful degenerates?
Don’t just comment “hawkish” or “dovish” like an NPC.
Use your remaining two brain cells and explain the reaction function.

My Position:
SPY 09/30 $760 P (light size, just a small hedge while watching the data)
🚀🚀🚀

Source:
[https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm)