Following on from my DD here:https://www.reddit.com/r/Shortsqueeze/comments/1vmb1gj/
An Earnings Update:
✅ Revenue: $83.8M vs $67.97M expected — **beat by 23%**
❌ EPS: -$0.18 GAAP vs \~-$0.09 expected — **missed \~2x**
✅ FY26 guide: raised to $525–550M
✅ Q3 guide: $140–155M vs \~$100M street — **\~45% above**
📚 Backlog: $757M pro forma vs $457M last print, plus $105M new Q3 orders already booked
⏩ Adj-EBITDA breakeven pulled forward to Q4'26 (platform) / Q4'27 (company)
🔻 Adj EBITDA: -$50.6M vs -$10.9M in Q1
TLDR: Does the squeeze still have legs? IMO yes. But it's not a home run and depends a lot on the market's reaction at open. It might also take a bit longer than we'd like
Narrative:
\- Everything was good / great apart from the EPS miss caused by diluting shares to take over other companies. This was common knowledge and probably the bear case, but the EPS miss still isn't great.
\- Claude estimates the average short entry price to be around $8.70 - $9.00. Any more than that and they're underwater (on average)
\- For the long term the stock looks great and Iran / Defence is a major tailwind here
\- A lot depends on the first 30 mins of open. If you're risk averse you might want to sell now.
\- It is likely to tank on open, due to a combination of shorts, retail selling and institutions liquidity sweeping. This is where they sell a proportion of their existing stock to drop the price into liquidity zones (e.g. where people have set stop losses, Market Maker gamma etc.) to get a better entry point. From there the stock rises. Whether this happens is anyones guess but I think given the bright future institutions will want to load up on the cheap