hey guys it's been a couple days so thought it would be a good idea to provide an update. There's a lot to go over so lets jump right into it.
First and foremost, price has dropped, its true. Those who scream 🚀 and to the moon don't understand medhanics they simply run on hype; that's fine but it can get you caught up on the short term.
So first, price dropping was expected, with max pain at $1.50 that's just a breeding ground for shorts and the numbers reflect that as well. On average we've seen 51% of all total volume over the past 4 trading days be short. Given the amount of volume the past 4 trading days, thats no small amount. To add to this, looking at the second screenshot the ctb (cost to borrow) and rebate, these shorts are willing to pay a premium for these shorts because they know it will likely be short term contracts. This can also be seen in the ctb and rebate that has seen both cost and rebate on the short seller to come down. This is typically the market pricing in less risk to them.
So is that? it's all doom and gloom? squeeze over? ABSOLUTELY NOT. I present to you ftds or failure to delivers (third screenshot) and the max pain of next friday. So for those not in the know, ftds are obligations to locate and purchase shares at the end of any securities contracts. At the end of said contract, the lender must provide you the shares that you are owed by purchasing either from the market or from what they have available. In the case they don't, they enter into an ftd which gives them up to 35 trading days to purchase from the market and provide the shares. Fun fact a lot of this started after one of the biggest ftds for $HTZ to the tune of 10m shares was due july 30th; with the second largest july 31st.
Now if you look while it pales in comparison, $HTZ is expecting a fairly decent size FTD deadline august 17th, the same week as the max pain being at $4 next friday along with an insane options chain due next friday.
All to say, expect short term dips but this keg is still very much so powdered.
p.s This post has been long enough, but if anybody wants a part 2 to talk about the options chain and such let me know!
btw i think it goes without saying, but no ai was used in the making of this.