Sup folks, we need to talk about GOSS.
MEAT AND POTATOES
The float/short setup:
\- 128.76M share float, \~26% of the 488.8M shares out
\- 18.75 to 22.6% of float sold short depending on source
\- ~~11.5 to 16.4 days to cover a real short base.~~
==Updated days to cover (8/23)==
\- 11.5-16.4 day figure was from a stale May print, current data has short interest up to \~95M shares but days-to-cover down to roughly 1.5-3.9 depending on source, since average volume has spiked hard this week too. Short interest as a percentage of float is actually higher now than what I originally posted (31-42% vs the 18.75-22.6% I cited), so the squeeze setup is very much alive, the mechanical days-to-cover argument is just weaker than I originally stated.
Catalyst isn't just shorts:
\- Gossamer reacquired full worldwide rights to seralutinib (their PAH drug) after terminating the partnership with Chiesi. No more splitting economics.
\- Completed their Pre-NDA meeting with the FDA, feedback was supportive.
\- NDA submission is planned for September 2026, weeks away. Filing itself is a catalyst, if accepted (\~60 days later), that's a second leg up before we even get to an approval decision.
\- Q2 print beat on both revenue ($9.2M vs $5.19M est) and EPS (-$0.08 vs -$0.12 est).
\- They wiped out $115.9M of debt in a July restructuring, swapping most of their old 2027 converts for smaller secured notes. Cleaner balance sheet heading into the filing.
Reason I bought (10k shares): this is a name with genuine squeeze jet fuel sitting on top of a real, imminent regulatory catalyst (September NDA filing), not just some BS meme. Shorts here have a lot further to run to cover than most of the crap that is getting posted daily.
What's happened since: stock chopped down to $0.14 on 8/17 on heavy volume (23M shares), based $0.14 to $0.16 for a few days, then spiked to $0.2375 intraday this morning (8/21), up 51% off Wednesday's close, on volume that topped 70M shares in the first 35 minutes of premarket, more than half the float. It's already faded back into the $0.17 to $0.18 range, so this was a spike and partial fade, not a clean breakout holding gains. No new fundamental catalyst behind the move, the FDA/Chiesi news is three weeks old at this point. Looks like float rotation, likely some shorts covering into the volume.
Checked live borrow data on IBKR twice this week:
\- 8/19: fee rate 6.75%, 10.56M shares available to borrow, 67% utilization
\- 8/21 post spike: fee rate 6.52%, only 3.39M shares available, 63% utilization
Fee rate hasn't spiked yet, so it's not officially hard to borrow. But available supply dropped 68% in two days, back of envelope the total lendable pool went from roughly 32M shares to about 9M. Less room left before this flips genuinely tight. If fee rate jumps into double digits from here, we'll get confirmation shorts are trapped, not rotating.
Risk, read this before you buy: cash was $57M as of end of Q2, runway into early 2027 only, they likely need to raise again before an actual approval decision (Q3 2027 at the earliest, this September event is just the filing). The July debt restructuring came with heavy dilution, warrants and converts that could push total share count past 1 billion if fully exercised/converted. There's also an authorized but unpriced reverse split (1 for 10 to 1 for 150, board hasn't picked a ratio or date yet) that will reset the share structure this whole short interest setup is based on. Goldman has suspended coverage citing the going concern language in the 10-Q, and other desks have cut price targets toward the $0.28 area on the same funding uncertainty. That's not new information, it's the same going concern note in the filing, but it's now actively shaping how sell side is framing this. Do your own diligence.