The correlation regime between NVDA-TSLA entered a weakening trend on 02 Sep 12:00 ET at +0.26, and is **still ongoing** (15 candles · 60 trading hours). Over this period NVDA fell 0.96%, TSLA rose 3.07%. **The two pairs decoupled.**
The composite correlation has since downed from +0.26 (02 Sep) to **-0.195 now** (last data: 09 Sep 08:00 ET) the weaking the regime flagged, playing out.
**READING — NVDA–TSLA at** WEAK × Weakening *(this pair's own last 6)*: for this pair it has bee **a moderate decoupling (hedge / spread)** — **6** past runs, median **8 candles · 32 trading hours** (range 5–18), 1 lasted 2+ days. So the play has a couple of days of room before the turn (**ANTITHESIS**).
**GAME PLAN:** Correlation is in a **Weakening regime** — the bond between NVDA-TSLA is loosening. This signals a shift into a **decoupling regime**: hedge and pair-trade (spread) strategies come to the fore, while one-way beta bets grow riskier.
**ANTITHESIS:** Risk: decoupling may be temporary; if correlation snaps back from the bottom, pair-trades backfire. Correlation is currently **0.41 points below** the period (1 Month) average — decoupling continues.
The divergence has been TSLA outperforming while NVDA stalled — TSLA's move favored calls.
*Methodology: Four-hour candle closes are used while the markets for both instruments are open (08:00, 12:00, 16:00, 20:00 ET).*
*The correlation coefficient is a composite score derived not only from the Pearson method but also from Pearson, Spearman, and EWMA calculations.*
