Babcock & Wilcox: the balance sheet stopped being the risk, and the market hasn’t noticed

**Babcock & Wilcox (BW): The balance sheet stopped being the risk**
I’ve been digging into Babcock & Wilcox, and I think the market may still be pricing the company like the old B&W.
18 months ago, the company had a going-concern qualification and \~$337M of net debt. Today, it has roughly **$106M of net cash** after redeeming its last near-term debt maturity.
Meanwhile:
Q2 revenue +130%
H1 revenue +85.7%
$2.4B Base Electron contract
Core revenue still growing \~40% excluding the major project
Stock around $7.10
My base-case valuation: **$9/share**
Bull case: **$18.50**
Bear case: **$3.45**
The interesting part is the valuation gap versus Argan, which is also benefiting from the AI/data-center power infrastructure buildout. Argan trades at a substantially higher multiple, although B&W has lower margins and significantly more customer concentration.
The big question for me is whether the $2.4B contract is a one-off or the beginning of a repeatable FastPower platform.
I’m leaning toward the latter, but there are obvious risks — particularly customer concentration, the ongoing securities litigation, and B&W’s disclosed internal-control weaknesses.
I wrote up the full thesis + DCF/sensitivity analysis here:
[Full B&W analysis](https://mountaininvesting.substack.com/p/babcock-and-wilcox-the-balance-sheet?r=8xcdat&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=chatgpt.com)
**Curious what I’m missing:** Is BW genuinely undervalued, or is the market correctly discounting the risks around Base Electron?