If the Iran war premium comes out of oil, how far do XOM and CVX fall before they're actually cheap?

Trump keeps saying gas should be around $2.25 and is going after Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP for price gouging. I don't think $2 gas is realistic. Crude is about half the pump price, so getting to $2 means oil in the $30s, and that only happens with a full peace deal plus OPEC flooding the market or a recession.

But I do think the more interesting question is the middle case. Oil is around $91 right now mostly because Hormuz traffic is way down. EIA is projecting gas back to about $3.29 next year as supply recovers. That implies oil somewhere in the $60s.

So here's what I'm trying to figure out:

1. At $65 oil, how much does that actually cut Exxon and Chevron earnings? They just did a $26.5B combined quarter. Is the market already pricing in the drop, or are these stocks still trading like $90 oil is permanent?
2. Where's the line where shale names start to hurt? I keep seeing $45 to $65 breakevens quoted but I don't know how much to trust those numbers.
3. Are refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX) the better way to play falling crude since they make money on the spread, not the price level?
4. Does the political pressure on the majors actually matter to the stocks, or is it noise?

Not looking for "buy X," more interested in how people who follow the sector think about the war premium unwinding. What am I missing?