2 months into Swing Trading with a 49% return (I know it's unsustainable). Here is my exact system after getting wrecked in crypto and futures—roast or critique my plan.
Hey everyone,
I’ve been swing trading for barely 2 months, and I'm currently sitting at a 49% return. I'm fully aware this isn't normal, healthy, or sustainable long-term.
Years ago, I traded crypto and made a lot of money, then transitioned to futures, made even more, and eventually lost everything due to over-leveraging.
Now, I've completely changed my approach. Here is my current swing trading routine, strategy, and risk framework. I’d love to get your feedback on potential blind spots:
Routine & Timeframes
Timeframes: Daily (1D) for macro regime and trend + 4H for entry precision and triggers.
Pre-Market: Macro validation (QQQ, IWM, VIX, breadth).
During Session: Tactical execution on the 4H.
1. Macro Filter (1D)
QQQ: Bullish only above the 20 and 50 EMA with positive slope. Absolutely prohibited from going long if trading below.
IWM & VIX: Strong IWM signals institutional risk-on appetite. VIX < 15 indicates a healthy market.
2. Scanner & Stock Selection (1D)
Profile: Mid and large-cap companies with clean, linear charts.
Quantitative Filters: ADR between 4% and 8%, Market Cap > $300M, Liquidity (dollar volume) > $100K daily, rising 50 and 200 EMAs.
3. Indicators & Technical Strategy
Supertrend: Mandatory regime filter (must be green on both 1D and 4H).
Moving Averages: 10, 20, and 50 EMA acting as value lanes and dynamic support.
Fast MACD: Linda Raschke setup (3/10/16 or 3/9).
4. Risk Management & Sizing
Max Risk (1R): Strict predefined loss per trade.
Minimum Acceptable Profit: 2R.
Ideal Swing Target: 4R to 8R.
5. Active Trade Management
Partial Exits: Take profits off the table if price extends > 7 ATRs away from the 50 EMA.
Breakeven (B/E): Move stop-loss to entry price upon reaching 1.5R - 2R.
Trailing Stops: Use the 10 or 20 EMA on 4H/1D timeframes to ride out major trends ("monster stocks").
What do you guys think? Is a 49% start a classic beginner's luck phase in a roaring market, or does the structure hold up?
Also, I feel like I'm cutting my winners way too short. Any advice on how to stop taking profits too early and let them run?