TTWO: Everyone knows GTA 6 will sell. They’re missing the bigger upside story.

GTA Online is going to be a massive upside driver + call option on adult Roblox user generated content platform + CEO Strauss Zelnick likely to ride into the sunset with a sale post GTA release.

1) Starting with the obvious - GTA 6 will be the biggest entertainment launch in history, and I think the market still isn’t remotely pricing it in.

TTWO’s CEO said in early August that GTA 6 preorders were “unprecedented and astonishing” and that “No one’s ever seen anything like this before at Take-Two or in the industry.”

That’s not normal CEO fluff. That’s a giant signal.

Then came the Netflix reveal + the recent “Cyberleeks” — and interest absolutely exploded.
Preorders reportedly jumped 436% in a single day after the Netflix reveal⁠

THE OPENING WEEKEND COULD BE ABSURD
My rough bull case:
30–50M copies × \~$98 ASP = $3–5B of revenue
IN THE OPENING WEEKEND.

Meanwhile, analysts are apparently modeling only \~$1.6B of incremental TTWO revenue for the entire December quarter.

If GTA 6 comes anywhere close to the high end of that range, estimates are going to look hilariously stale.

And yes, I know:
“But GTA 6 sales are one-time.”
That’s true.

2) GTA Online is the real monster and is UNDERMONETIZED AS FUCK

GTA remains one of the most-played games in the world despite being 13 YEARS OLD.

It’s consistently near the top of PlayStation engagement rankings, remains a major Steam title, and is one of the most-watched games across Twitch/YouTube.

Yet GTA Online reportedly generates only around $400M/year in revenue.

Compare that with category leaders like Fortnite, Call of Duty and EA-FC, which can generate \~$2B/year in player spending.

GTA has arguably the strongest IP of the bunch.
GTA 6 massively expands the addressable audience + resets the monetization clock.

If GTA Online becomes a $1B+ annual business, the economics of TTWO change dramatically.

3) THEN THERE’S FIVEM

This is the part I think the market is REALLY sleeping on.

TTWO bought FiveM, the massive GTA role-playing/modding platform, in 2023.

FiveM already has a huge community and regularly ranks among the top games/platforms on Steam by concurrent users — despite being largely under-monetized today.

Think about what happens if Rockstar turns GTA 6 + FiveM into a legitimate user-generated-content ecosystem.

GTA × Roblox economics.
Could it fail? Absolutely.
Could it become fucking enormous?
Also absolutely.

And IMO the stock gives you almost zero credit for this optionality.

That’s a free call option.

4) EVENTUALLY, SOMEONE IS GOING TO BUY THIS THING

Microsoft bought Activision Blizzard.

EA was acquired by a Saudi/Kushner-led consortium in 2026.

That leaves TTWO as one of the last truly scaled independent publishers with:
GTA
Red Dead Redemption
NBA 2K
A huge mobile portfolio
Rockstar
Zynga
FiveM
And arguably the most valuable entertainment IP in gaming.

Then there’s Strauss Zelnick. 69 years old (nice).

He owns \~1.4M TTWO shares directly/through ZMC Advisors.

I have a hard time believing the guy wants to spend the next decade running a public video-game publisher after delivering the biggest GTA launch in history.

A successful GTA 6 launch would be the perfect time to sell the company at peak strategic value.