Thesis: DXYZ just disclosed NAV of $34.30 today (7% upside from current price). Much of that is Anthropic and OpenAI.
Scenario 1 (realistic cut as of today): Anthropic at $1T, OpenAI at $850B, SPCX at its current price - $35.31 NAV, with 46% cash, 18% Anthropic, 12% OpenAI.
Scenario 2: Anthropic at $1.5T, OpenAI at $1T - $39.23 NAV, with 41% cash, 25% Anthropic, 12% OpenAI.
Scenario 3: Anthropic at $2.0T, OpenAI at $1.3T - $43.86 NAV, with 37% cash, 29% Anthropic, 14% OpenAI.
Look, I don’t want go into too much detail on this on a WSB post. But the fact of the matter is these businesses are projected to do insane revenue in 2028 with margins approaching 70% in the following years. I know I know, AI is a bubble blah blah blah. Anthropic and OpenAI, at their current states, are already the fastest growing companies at their scale in history. I think there are fair arguments about the moats (or lack there of) but if I had to choose a side on the durability of the businesses I would take the bull side just due to the network effects and the capital needed to build a competitive model in the coming years.
But also, wake up guys. 90% of current white collar workers are worried Claude is going to take their jobs. I think it’s a mistake to compare the investor appetite for Anthropic or OpenAI to even the SpaceX IPO.
Both will moon after IPO and bubble boys will seethe.
