"We will need more of X in the future" contains zero information about whether or not to buy a stock at its current price.
A good thing to remember is that the purpose of participating in the stock market is to make money, not to be right about a trend or right about a company. It's extremely common on Reddit to see "We will need more of X in the future, therefore it's a good idea to buy this stock", usually to justify either buying an ATH, not cutting losses, or catching a knife. I think it's important to remember that the market does not owe you an appreciation on your asset or high relative performance for being right about the direction of economic developments. The following are some historical examples and their relative underperformance to various assets.
2022: "Will software-as-a-service and digital enterprise platforms become more deeply embedded in business in the future, or less?"
Software was the "sure bet" for years, as a sector it has appreciated 22% between 2022 and now. In the same time period, M2 money supply expanded by 5.6% and the S&P increased by 115%. Gold, a terrible investment in many regards, increased by 178%. **This is despite SaaS & digital enterprise clearly becoming more deeply embedded, not less.**
2008: "Will real estate be more expensive in the future, or less?"
Real estate was the "sure bet" for years, as a sector it's now up 68% since the pre-crash peak. In the same time period, M2 money supply expanded by 219.5% and the S&P increased 378%. Gold, a terrible investment in many regards, increased by 510%. **This is despite the fact that real estate clearly did become more expensive in the future, not less.**
2000: "Will the internet become more commercialized in the future, or less?"
We know how this one played out. Nasdaq took 16 years to recover nominally and 21 years to recover inflation-adjusted from its previous ATH. During that time period, M2 money supply expanded by 341% and the S&P increased 571%. Gold, a terrible investment in many regards, increased by 1,558%. **This is despite the internet clearly becoming more commercialized in the future, not less.**
1990: "Will commercial real estate and institutional debt structuring be more utilized in the future, or less?"
Savings and Loan crisis wipeout. 1k+ bankruptcies, real estate markets dropped 20-50% for years. $24 billion of 1990 dollars in bailouts. Junk bonds wiped out by bankruptcies, severe losses for investors and pension funds. **CRE and debt structuring clearly became more utilized in the future, not less.**
1970: "Will corporate conglomerates and multi-national business operations be more common in the future, or less?"
M&A powered by debt was seen as an infalliable strategy for earnings growth. S&P collapsed 36%, many companies' stocks lost 90%+ of their value and then went bankrupt, $39 billion of 1970 dollars in bailouts. Bear market and high inflation lasted an entire decade. **But yes, corporate conglomerates and multinationals clearly became more common in the future, not less.**
Some recent comments I've seen on Reddit:
"Buy Walmart stock right now, it just crashed. Will people be shopping at walmart more in the future, or less?" Ignore the fact that walmart's growth was literally the worst in 6 years for the sake of conversation.
"Buy ASTS and RKLB stocks right now, they just crashed. Will people be launching more rockets into space in the future, or less?"
"Buy memory stocks right now, they just crashed. Will people need more chips in the future, or less?"
Whether the trend is correct or not in an abstract sense has zero relevance to the expected value of buying a specific stock at a specific price at a specific time. This is something everyone should be aware of instead of relying on vague hunches with no defined endpoint to make investment decisions.