Nike stock - I was wrong in the particulars, right in the bigger picture

It takes a big man to admit his mistakes, and I am that big man. I said Nike stock wouldn’t close below $40 and here we are. Still, my point remains the same- Nike stock has very little downside at $40. It’s currently roughly 5 % down from what I believed to be the floor at $40 and while it’s not great to be down 5 % on your investment it’s a minor setback compared to what could be the case if you buy MU, SNDK and things go south. You’ll never be down 50 % if you buy NKE at $38. There’s just zero chance it will ever touch $19. Meanwhile, SNDK could drop 50 % in a week or two and it would still be up like 250 % year to date.

Earnings are coming up in a month for Nike and if I am right about the 40 area being the floor for the stock, you’re basically going into earnings with either a flat outcome or a bounce back to $45 ish. Usually NKE won’t move more than 5-10 % on earnings.

Nike stock currently is great even for a short term bounce but the real reward here is to hold onto it for years. There’s just no way all the bad news that has happened to the footwear and sportswear industry can continue like this. ONON, DECK, LULU, ADS are all down over 50 % from their all time highs. Nike and Lululemon stocks close to 80 % down from all time highs. In 2030 people will look back at these stocks and realize that they were extremely cheap in 2026. Screaming buys all of them.

So why haven’t I bought 20 % of each stock rather than 100 % NKE in my portfolio? Because NKE is the safest bet. Lululemon, Hoka, On brands could all be gone five years from now and nobody would think twice about it. Nike and Adidas will still be here five years from now. Why? Because they’ve stood the test of time. Because of their brand value and their decades long proving that they can execute on strategies. We know Nike and Adidas are great businesses. They are just damaged by a billion headwinds in the past five years. We don’t know if Lululemon, On Running and Deckers can last in this environment.

Also, Nike is going back to wholesale partners. Both Dick’s and Kohl’s reported that Nike was a top growing brand in their most recent quarters. The miscalculated direct to consumer strategy that the previous Nike CEO rolled out is finally getting fixed. Nike is going to be in most stores again, everywhere. And that means Hoka, New Balance, On etc will get much more competition from Nike in the next five years compared to the past five years.

Nike, ladies and gentlemen. At $38, just do it. My position is 6,000 shares at $41.