$ORCL reports tomorrow after the close.
Before anyone positions around a beat or miss guess, $ORCL own record on that guess is close to worthless. It has missed EPS estimates in 7 of last 8 quarters.
Here's what actually happened to the stock each time.
|Date|EPS result|Implied move|Next-day move|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|6/10/26|Miss|±10.9%|**-8.5%**|
|3/10/26|Miss|±8.4%|**+9.2%**|
|12/10/25|Beat|±9.0%|**-10.8%**|
|9/9/25|Miss|±8.3%|**+35.9%**|
|6/11/25|Miss|±6.4%|**+13.3%**|
|3/10/25|Miss|±9.0%|**-3.1%**|
|12/9/24|Miss|±7.8%|**-6.7%**|
|9/9/24|Miss|±6.7%|**+11.4%**|
the ONE quarter they actually beat, the stock fell 10.8% the next day and was down 20% a week later. Meanwhile 4 of 7 misses rallied. one of them 35.9% in a single DAY.
Zoom all the way out back to 2007, $ORCL closes green the day after earnings 46.4% of the time. 2 decades of prints, coin flip.
Why? Trailing EPS isn't what your trading. Its cloud booking and forward guidance. A GAAP miss next to a monster backlog number has read bullish over and over. The one technical beat came with soft guidance and got SOLD.
$ORCL has blown through its implied move in 5 of the last 8 reports. Averaging 12.4% actual vs 10.1% implied. Eights reports is a real sample - not a huge one though.