CPI is out tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, and the usual playbook seems pretty obvious:
Softer CPI → yields down → risk-on → BTC up
Hotter CPI → yields up → risk-off → BTC down
But lately the first move after macro data hasn’t always been the real move.
I’m more interested in what happens to Treasury yields and DXY immediately after the release. If those don’t confirm the initial BTC move, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reverse pretty quickly.
If CPI lands right at consensus, do you think the event is basically priced in?
And if we get a surprise in either direction, would you trade the initial BTC move or wait for confirmation?
What’s your setup for CPI?