hey everyone wanted to share my analysis on deckers outdoor ticker deck using actual numbers from their latest 10k and 10q filings as of august 2026. the stock is trading right around 97.46 per share right now with about 138.56 million diluted shares giving it a market cap of roughly 13.5 billion dollars. looking at the balance sheet from the recent 10q filed for june 30 2026 they have 1.603 billion in cash and cash equivalents and literally zero outstanding debt. that means the enterprise value is sitting at about 11.9 billion dollars.
if you look at the valuation multiples the p/e ratio is currently around 13.8x based on full year fiscal 2026 diluted eps of 7.02 and trailing numbers which is super cheap compared to its historical average of over 22x. then when you calculate enterprise value divided by its free cash flow deckers generated about 1.05 billion in free cash flow over the last year. so ev divided by free cash flow is roughly 11.3x which is insane for a high margin brand growing revenue at 10 percent annually with hoka and ugg.
now lets do the actual dcf math using these exact filing numbers. starting with 1.05 billion free cash flow if we assume a modest 9 percent annual fcf growth rate for the next 5 years considering hoka double digit growth and guidance for fiscal 2027 and use a 9 percent discount rate with a 4 percent terminal growth rate the present value of cash flows over 5 years comes out to around 4.8 billion dollars. the terminal value discounted back adds another 20.9 billion dollars. add back the 1.603 billion net cash and total equity value comes out to roughly 27.3 billion dollars. dividing that by 138.56 million shares gives an intrinsic value of about 225 dollars per share.
if you invest now at 97 dollars per share it will perform at least 130 percent profit as the market re-rates it back to its true fair value. sure theoretically the stock might drop a bit in the short term due to tariff fears and freight cost noise mentioned in the earnings call but that drop would be purely temporary because the balance sheet is pristine and cash flow keeps stacking up. overall this looks like an unbelievable risk reward opportunity right now.