ttd dropping over twenty percent after q2 earnings down to around 13.80 a share on august 7 2026 but if you look at the actual sec 10-q and 10-k filings the math is absurdly cheap right now. market cap sits at roughly 6.5 billion right now with around 475 million shares outstanding. if you pull up the balance sheet from the latest 10-q they have 1.5 billion in cash and short term investments with zero long term debt. that means the enterprise value is only 5.0 billion dollars.
now look at the free cashflow. over the trailing twelve months fcf came in at 842.5 million dollars. so if you take enterprise value divided by free cashflow ev/fcf is literally 6.0x right now for a market leader. their p/e ratio dropped to 15.5 based on ttm eps of 0.89 dollars.
let us run a super simple dcf model on these real filing numbers. take baseline trailing fcf of 842.5 million. even if growth slows down to just 8 percent annually over the next 5 years and we use a 10 percent discount rate with a modest 3 percent terminal rate the present value of cash flows comes out to roughly 15.2 billion dollars. add back the 1.5 billion net cash and total equity value is around 16.7 billion. divide that by 475 million shares and intrinsic value per share is roughly 35 dollars. if we assume historical 12 to 15 percent cash flow growth as connected tv recovers the intrinsic value easily pushes past 55 dollars per share.
buying at 13.80 per share today means this stock will perform at least 300% profit if invested now as valuation re-rates back toward fair value over the next few years. sure it could theoretically drop a bit more in the short term if macro sentiment stays weak but that would be purely temporary given the bulletproof balance sheet and cash generation. people dumping at 15x earnings with a 9.8 percent fcf yield are completely blind to the actual numbers.