Posts  / #POST-245882
REDDIT

Is the market underestimating the Iran situation again?

We're near highs on the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, but things in the middle east do not seem to be getting worse, not better:

\- Iran's proposal with Oman looks like a non-starter for the US, requiring reparations and US withdrawal from the middle east, and allowing no US or Israeli ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz

\- Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are discussing an alliance, reflecting their concern that the US will not be able to protect them

\- Meanwhile, oil is a looming threat for the economy. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being drawn down significantly, and is at it's lowest level since 1983:
[https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W)

It seems like this needs to either 1) resolve with the US accepting the deal (effectively giving up), 2) escalate with the US demonstrating its strength with an invasion or special forces operation, or 3) become an oil crisis as the US draws down the SPR.

How do we get out of this?