Why bad job numbers are pumping stocks (+ Technical breakdowns on $ABNB,$APD, $LABU,$XLB)
The macro disconnect right now is wild.
July added just 23k jobs (expected 150k), labor force participation fell, and wages declined. Normally, that’s a beatdown for equities. Instead, $SPY, $QQQ, and$DIA soared.
Why? Because the market isn't trading the economy right now—it's trading the **Federal Reserve**. Bad economic data forces the Fed’s hand. Rate hike odds for Sept/Oct collapsed, and the market is pricing in liquidity/cuts. As long as we're in a "bad news is good news" regime, the path of least resistance remains **UP**.
I'm sitting on **zero shorts** and remaining net long.
Here’s a look at the technical setups I'm tracking this week across a few sectors:
# 1. Airbnb ($ABNB) — Pullback / Retracement Play
* **The Setup:** Huge breakout above horizontal consolidation on Friday, wiping out shorts.
* **The Trade:** Resistance sits immediately above around 179.80. **Do not chase here.** The play is to wait for a structured retracement back to former resistance-turned-support before establishing a long position.
* *Rule:* The longer the consolidation, the greater the validation of the breakout.
# 2. Air Products and Chemicals ($APD) — Volatility Compression
* **The Setup:** APD formed a tight **Bollinger Band squeeze inside Keltner Channels**—a classic volatility compression setup. Broke out of consolidation Friday on solid price action.
* **The Trade:** Looking for continuation. When Bollinger Bands squeeze inside Keltner channels, the subsequent expansion is usually explosive.
# 3. Direxion Daily S&P Biotech 3X ($LABU) — High-Beta Momentum
* **The Setup:** Broke out of its multi-week retracement on above-average Thursday/Friday volume.
* **The Trade:** Highly volatile (if you don't like 3x leverage, look at non-leveraged $IBB). Path of least resistance is up on weekly charts. Looking for a minor checkback entry.
# 4. Materials Sector ETF ($XLB) — Squeeze Setup
* **The Setup:** Very tight Bollinger Bands inside Keltner Channels holding above a volume shelf. Above-average volume came in Friday.
* **The Trade:** Long consolidation resolving to the upside. Multi-month compression points toward a sustained move higher.
# Multi-Timeframe Reminder
Daily charts give you entry triggers, but weekly/monthly charts give you the macro trend (the 50k and 100k-foot views). Always check higher timeframes to know whether you’re in a quick swing trade or a longer positioning trade.
*I put together a full video breaking down the exact chart levels, entry points, and stop-loss targets on TrendSpider if you want to see the visual layouts:* [**https://thecontrariantrader.com/market-insights/why-terrible-job-numbers-are-pumping-stocks-plus-4-breakout-stock-charts-to-watch/**](https://thecontrariantrader.com/market-insights/why-terrible-job-numbers-are-pumping-stocks-plus-4-breakout-stock-charts-to-watch/)
*What tickers or sectors are you guys looking to long/short this week given the Fed shift? Let's discuss below.*
