How's everybody feeling about BTC price these days? Did we already bottom in June or is the real bottom still coming (40k range)?

So I feel like I'm stuck.. i keep going back and forth on this and decided to check what you guys think.

June was just brutal.. BTC opened around $70k-$73k and by the end of the month we were sitting at like $58,5k, lowest since late 2024. Thats a 50%+ drawdown from the ath in Otober. everyone was in full panic mode, etf outflows were absolutely nuked (like 4.5B+ out in one month), money rotating into AI stocks instead, strategy/microstrategy related selling, strong dollar, rates still annoying, basically every bad macro thing happening at once..

Out here's the thing that makes me think maybe that WAS the bottom - on chain data was showing whales and long term holders accumulating through the whole dip, not dumping. Price also got close to realized price which historically has been a decent floor. So some people are calling June the cycle low and we've been steadily climbing back since.

BUT the 4 year cycle people are not convinced. The argument is that every previous cycle bottom actually undercut the realized price by a lot more than what we saw in June, and "real" capitulation bottoms feel way worse than this did. They're saying the classic pattern is pointing toward 40-50k later this year and June was just a scary correction, not the actual bottom.

So basically we're in this weird spot where price recovered enough that it doesn't feel as scary anymore but nobody can agree if the coast is clear or if we're due for one more leg down. I've already got the stablecoins ready to buy the dump. They're parked on Nexo earning yield, waiting to be deployed, but I'm honestly confused rn... can't really decide if i should just buy in at current levels or keep holding out for a sweep of the $40k range.

What's actually gonna change your mind at this point - like what specific thing would make the "June was the bottom" camp flip to team $40k, or vice versa? Atm it seems like both sides are just waiting for the other to be proven wrong instead of pointing to something concrete..