TLT is the ETF for US Longterm Treasury Bonds. Right now it's pushing all-time lows since the ETF was launched in July 2002:
https://preview.redd.it/9olu7l3sbzhh1.png?width=1415&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b6827aae7de2f7df452879210d00c2ec9027987
If you look at the dates where TLT takes big hits, you'll see they align with some annoying periods of the stock market:
July 2007 - Great Financial Crisis
December 2013 - QE tapering off market panic
October 2018 - Fed hawkish and 20% S&P correction
July 2020 - Covid
September 2023 - Mini recession
May 2025 - Tariffs
August 2026 - Kevin Warsh
These dates tend to align with high inflation and fiscal tightening which triggered market corrections/macroeconomic crisis.
The 82.00 level is somewhat of a hard floor... so far. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In the worst case scenario where interest rates are run up to \~8% in an emergency need for fiscal tightening (which would also destroy the world economy), TLT would likely go to $45-50, which would suck for this trade.
RSI is somewhat oversold, but RSI isn't that relevant for an equity like this. All else equal it's probably better to buy something when it's oversold than when it's not.
The put to call skew on TLT right now is like 7:1 and the short float is 20% so this is a very contrarian trade and will probably be punished by a 15-25% loss. My thesis is that the USA will not force an economic reset or a global financial crisis to happen. Avoiding this would cause some mean reversion to happen for TLT.
Also, at this price, TLT's interest rate is 5.14%, which provides some floor via income-strategy boomer buyers and provides some copium payouts if I get stuck in this trade. At least it's not nothing. NFA
**My positions:**
**100 contracts January 1st 2027 leaps with strike price of $100 for an average cost of $9 each**
**100 contracts Sept 11 2026 calls with strike price of $96 for an average cost of $1 each**
**500 shares at a blended cost basis of $82.20** ($41,100)
I'm targeting a mean reversion move to $88, at which point I'll sell 400 shares for a profit of $2000. I'm targeting the leaps to be ITM or close by Jan 1 2027.