The most interesting thing to me in the last earnings of Celsius is that for the first time ever, the management gave a concrete goal for international growth.
**15% of revenues by 2031.**
Celsius has only expanded into a handful of countries with current international (excluding Canada) sales representing 3.5% of total.
To get from 3.5% to 15% in 5 years means annual growth of 33% if we assume that US growth will not happen. Of course, since US growth will continue, we should, therefore, expect even higher international growth for the management to be correct.
It is feasible?
Since 2017, International growth has only been 29%.
With the Pepsi distribution system, I believe it is possible to go beyond the 29% or even 33%. It has been done before when Monster joined the Coca Cola distribution system. And Celsius has an advantage over Monster, it is different.
Besides, Celsius now with Alani Nu will have two brands entering the market both benefitting from the Pepsi leverage.
So far, Celsius has been focusing on the US. And only recently we had seen new countries opening. One of the earliest country where Celsius expanded was Sweden in 2009.
CEO John Fieldly mentioned that in the last 4 weeks, Celsius sold 3.5 million units. Let's do some back of the envelope calculation. If each unit costs $2, that means $7 million in 4 weeks or about $90 million annualized.
This represents about 15% of the market share in Sweden.
That's not the 20% in the US. But it is still meaningful and replicable.
What's interesting is how this happened.
Celsius didn't choose Sweden. Sweden chose Celsius. Two Swedish entrepreneur discovered the drink in the US and decided that their country needed it.
When John Fieldly joined Celsius in 2012 as CFO, the company had only 12 employees. Today, it is challenging in the Monster/Redbull duopoly in the US. And soon, it could be worldwide.