figma/FIG is way overvalued and it will drop to 7 usd per share. SHORT

i was going through the latest 10 q filings and q2 2026 earnings report for figma fig and the numbers just do not make sense at the current price of around 24 to 25 a share. everyone got hyped when they ipo mid last year at 33 and shot up over 100, but looking at the actual fundamentals now in 2026, this thing has so much further to fall.
look at the sec data. right now fig has around 528 million shares outstanding which puts its market cap at roughly 12.8 billion. on the balance sheet they have 1.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of q2 2026. subtracting that cash gives an enterprise value ev of about 11.1 billion.
now look at the actual cash generation. full year 2025 adjusted free cash flow came in at 242.7 million. in q2 2026 they reported 53.2 million in fcf. looking at the current run rate, fcf is hanging around 210 million to 230 million because fcf is actually slowly dropping due to crazy operating costs and stock compensation - they spent a massive 147. 6 million just on stock based compensation in q2 alone, leading to a gaap operating loss of 117 .3 million.
if you take the 11.1 billion ev and divide it by their 220 million to 242 million fcf, its current ev is 50x of its fcf whis is redicilous. paying 50x free cash flow for a company where gaap net income is negative and that fcf is only slowly dropping whoch makes situation worse is completely crazy.
here is the actual math on what fair value should be. for a software company maturing with slowing cash flow, a fair target multiple is ev/fcf=15. if we apply 15x ev/fcf on a normalized run rate of around 180 million to 200 million as cash flow continues to soften, fair ev should be roughly 2.7 billion to 3.0 billion. add back their 1.7 billion cash pile and you get a fair market cap of around 3.7 billion to 4.7 billion.
its value is 7 in that case it would be fair price ev 15x of its fcf. it will drop to 7 which means its short. the math does not lie and once the market stops paying 50x ev/fcf for heavy stock dilution and gaap losses, this stock is going straight down.