MCD is down almost 20% from highs earlier this year driven by what appears to be largely macro fears than a blow-up in financials.
Current P/E \~22x is below its trailing 5-year average and on the lower end of trailing 12-months
Management are still guiding store growth towards 50k and margins/free cash flow generation remain strong.
My biggest concern is expected revenue growth given rising CAPEX through store growth and the rollout of McDonalds NEXT.
Per my valuation, the stock is trading slightly below my intrinsic value with an upside between 4-20% (depending on terminal growth of 2-2.5%).
By no means am I suggesting this is deep value, but given historic multiples it may be a good entry point for long-term investors.
Would love to know your thoughts.
https://substack.com/@doveresearch/note/p-208561507?r=8ldxxk&utm\_source=notes-share-action&utm\_medium=web
